01. Strategic Skeleton
CORE ENDS (Objectives)
- Homeland Survival: Absolute border control & anti-subversion.
- Economic Autarky: Reindustrialization & Energy Dominance.
- Military Primacy: "Golden Dome" defense & denial of aggression.
CORE MEANS (Tools)
- Econ Statecraft: Aggressive tariffs & "Reciprocal" deals.
- Transactionalism: 5% GDP demand for NATO; Bilateral deals.
- Asymmetric Power: Low-cost drone swarms + Nuclear modernization.
THEORY (Logic)
- Nation-State Realism: Only nations matter; institutions are hostile.
- Peace Through Strength: Overwhelming leverage forces capitulation.
- Zero-Sum Econ: Economic security IS national security.
02. Feasibility Stress Test
| Goal | Proposed Mechanism | Critical Friction Point | Feasibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reindustrialization | Tariffs, Cheap Energy, "Re-shoring" | Inflationary spikes & retaliation | LOW-MED |
| Western Hemisphere Dominance | "Trump Corollary", Block Foreign Assets, Force | Sovereignty backlash (Brazil/Mexico) | MEDIUM |
| European "Burden Shift" | Demand 5% GDP spending from NATO | Political impossibility for EU states | LOW |
| "Golden Dome" Defense | Next-gen missile defense & space assets | Tech readiness & cost-exchange ratio | LOW |
03. Critical Risk Nodes
Alliance Fracture
Category: Geopolitical
Demanding 5% GDP spending functions as a "poison pill," potentially shattering NATO cohesion and exposing Eastern Europe.
Inflation Shock
Category: Economic
Simultaneous tariffs, mass deportation, and re-industrialization subsidies could trigger a severe wage-price spiral.
Hemispheric Blowback
Category: Diplomatic
"Trump Corollary" enforcement (strikes on cartels) may drive Latin American nations into secret defense pacts with China.
Civil Liberties
Category: Domestic
"Enemy Within" rhetoric and ideological purges in the civil service could expand into general suppression of dissent.
Golden Dome Fallacy
Category: Tech / Military
Over-investment in perfect defense may trigger an arms race where adversaries build more MIRVs to overwhelm the shield.
"Peace Deal" Fragility
Category: Geopolitical
Strategy assumes willpower alone freezes conflicts. If deals unravel, credibility of the "strength" model collapses.
STRATEGIC SCORECARD
Unapologetically clear "America First" prioritization.
Economic autarky conflicts with military affordability.
Tech and alliance demands are unrealistic in timeframe.
Brittle strategy; reliance on "strength" leaves little room for pivots.