Top 10 Red Flags
2025 National Security Strategy Cover

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System Evaluation

2025 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

A neutral, full-stack audit of logic, feasibility, risks, and blind spots within the Trump Administration's strategic framework.

01. Strategic Skeleton

CORE ENDS (Objectives)

  • Homeland Survival: Absolute border control & anti-subversion.
  • Economic Autarky: Reindustrialization & Energy Dominance.
  • Military Primacy: "Golden Dome" defense & denial of aggression.

CORE MEANS (Tools)

  • Econ Statecraft: Aggressive tariffs & "Reciprocal" deals.
  • Transactionalism: 5% GDP demand for NATO; Bilateral deals.
  • Asymmetric Power: Low-cost drone swarms + Nuclear modernization.

THEORY (Logic)

  • Nation-State Realism: Only nations matter; institutions are hostile.
  • Peace Through Strength: Overwhelming leverage forces capitulation.
  • Zero-Sum Econ: Economic security IS national security.

02. Feasibility Stress Test

Goal Proposed Mechanism Critical Friction Point Feasibility
Reindustrialization Tariffs, Cheap Energy, "Re-shoring" Inflationary spikes & retaliation LOW-MED
Western Hemisphere Dominance "Trump Corollary", Block Foreign Assets, Force Sovereignty backlash (Brazil/Mexico) MEDIUM
European "Burden Shift" Demand 5% GDP spending from NATO Political impossibility for EU states LOW
"Golden Dome" Defense Next-gen missile defense & space assets Tech readiness & cost-exchange ratio LOW

03. Critical Risk Nodes

Alliance Fracture

Category: Geopolitical

Demanding 5% GDP spending functions as a "poison pill," potentially shattering NATO cohesion and exposing Eastern Europe.

Inflation Shock

Category: Economic

Simultaneous tariffs, mass deportation, and re-industrialization subsidies could trigger a severe wage-price spiral.

Hemispheric Blowback

Category: Diplomatic

"Trump Corollary" enforcement (strikes on cartels) may drive Latin American nations into secret defense pacts with China.

Civil Liberties

Category: Domestic

"Enemy Within" rhetoric and ideological purges in the civil service could expand into general suppression of dissent.

Golden Dome Fallacy

Category: Tech / Military

Over-investment in perfect defense may trigger an arms race where adversaries build more MIRVs to overwhelm the shield.

"Peace Deal" Fragility

Category: Geopolitical

Strategy assumes willpower alone freezes conflicts. If deals unravel, credibility of the "strength" model collapses.

STRATEGIC SCORECARD

Strategic Clarity HIGH

Unapologetically clear "America First" prioritization.

Ends-Means Fit LOW

Economic autarky conflicts with military affordability.

Feasibility LOW

Tech and alliance demands are unrealistic in timeframe.

Adaptability LOW-MED

Brittle strategy; reliance on "strength" leaves little room for pivots.